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Hantavirus Prediction Markets
Every live market on the 2026 hantavirus outbreak. Each question resolves against verifiable WHO, ECDC, PAHO and CDC sources — see how we resolve markets.
Policy
- Will the WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by Dec 31, 2026?closes in 231d 21h· WHO· PHEIC· policyyes7¢
- Will any G20 country impose hantavirus-specific cruise restrictions by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· travel· policy· G20yes29¢
- Will any EU country close schools regionally citing hantavirus by June 15?closes in 32d 21h· schools· EUyes5¢
- Will the WHO Director-General publicly use the word 'pandemic' for hantavirus by Sep 1?closes in 110d 21h· WHO· pandemic· covid-echoyes4¢
- Will any G20 country impose a nationwide stay-at-home order citing hantavirus by Sep 1?closes in 110d 21h· lockdown· G20· covid-echoyes2¢
- Will any country close its borders to non-citizens citing hantavirus by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· border· travel-ban· covid-echoyes7¢
- Will any G7 country announce an Operation Warp Speed–style hantavirus countermeasures program by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· funding· vaccine· covid-echoyes11¢
- Will WHO convene an IHR Emergency Committee on hantavirus by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· WHO· IHR· covid-echoyes14¢
- Will any city >1M residents be placed under stay-at-home order citing hantavirus by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· cordon· Wuhan-echo· covid-echoyes4¢
- Will any G7 country impose a public-space mask mandate citing hantavirus by Sep 1?closes in 110d 21h· masks· mandate· covid-echoyes6¢
- Will any government order culling of >100k animals citing hantavirus by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· culling· reservoir· covid-echoyes32¢
- Will any G7 country suspend funding to or notify withdrawal from WHO over hantavirus response in 2026?closes in 231d 21h· WHO· geopolitics· covid-echoyes5¢
- Will any government open a temporary/field hospital for hantavirus by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· hospital· surge-capacity· covid-echoyes7¢
- Will BARDA allocate more than $500M for hantavirus countermeasures by Dec 31?closes in 231d 21h· BARDA· funding· hantavirusyes14¢
- Will WHO convene an IHR Emergency Committee on hantavirus by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· WHO· IHR· emergency-committeeyes19¢
- Will WHO upgrade hantavirus risk assessment to VERY HIGH by June 30?closes in 47d 21h· WHO· risk-assessment· hantavirusyes13¢
- Will any country impose travel bans due to hantavirus by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· travel-ban· hantavirus· policyyes11¢
- Will the EU activate its Emergency Response Coordination Centre for hantavirus?closes in 231d 21h· EU· ERCC· hantavirusyes24¢
- Will CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for hantavirus by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· CDC· Level 3· travel-noticeyes17¢
- Will hantavirus cause school closures in any country by September 1?closes in 110d 21h· schools· closures· hantavirusyes14¢
Geography
- Will a second EU country confirm a domestic Andes virus case by June 15, 2026?closes in 32d 21h· EU· Andes· geographyyes34¢
- Will the US CDC report a first imported Andes virus case by Sep 1, 2026?closes in 110d 21h· USA· CDC· Andesyes22¢
- Will Russia confirm an imported Andes case by August 1?closes in 79d 21h· Russia· importyes13¢
- Will the United States confirm more than 20 hantavirus cases by July 1, 2026?closes in 48d 21h· USA· hantavirus· casesyes38¢
- Will the United Kingdom confirm a hantavirus death by August 1, 2026?closes in 79d 21h· UK· hantavirus· deathyes12¢
- Will Canada declare a hantavirus public health emergency by July 15?closes in 62d 21h· Canada· hantavirus· emergencyyes9¢
- Will France confirm more than 10 hantavirus cases by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· France· hantavirus· casesyes28¢
- Will Germany report community transmission of hantavirus by August 1?closes in 79d 21h· Germany· hantavirus· community-transmissionyes15¢
- Will Australia confirm a hantavirus death by September 1?closes in 110d 21h· Australia· hantavirus· deathyes8¢
- Will Japan confirm domestic hantavirus cases linked to 2026 outbreak by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· Japan· hantavirus· 2026yes11¢
- Will Spain report more than 5 hantavirus cases by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· Spain· hantavirus· casesyes19¢
- Will Nebraska declare a state of emergency over hantavirus by June 15?closes in 32d 21h· Nebraska· hantavirus· emergencyyes6¢
- Will hantavirus spread to Africa (excluding South Africa) by September 1?closes in 110d 21h· Africa· hantavirus· spreadyes7¢
Fatality
- Will MV Hondius–linked deaths exceed 10 by July 1, 2026?closes in 48d 21h· MV Hondius· deathsyes18¢
- Will global hantavirus deaths exceed 10 by July 1, 2026?closes in 48d 21h· deaths· hantavirus· globalyes42¢
- Will hantavirus case fatality rate exceed 20% in the 2026 outbreak?closes in 231d 21h· CFR· fatality-rate· hantavirusyes58¢
Spread
- Will WHO-confirmed Andes/HPS cases linked to 2026 cluster exceed 100 by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· spread· globalyes25¢
- Will a second cruise ship be linked to a hantavirus cluster by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· cruise· clusteryes16¢
- Will MV Hondius quarantine period exceed 42 days?closes in 48d 21h· MV Hondius· quarantine· cruiseyes52¢
- Will a second cruise ship report hantavirus cases by September 1?closes in 110d 21h· cruise· hantavirus· second-shipyes18¢
- Will global hantavirus cases exceed 500 by September 1, 2026?closes in 110d 21h· cases· hantavirus· globalyes15¢
- Will human-to-human transmission of Andes virus be confirmed outside South America?closes in 231d 21h· Andes-virus· human-to-human· transmissionyes21¢
Science
- Will WHO formally acknowledge sustained human-to-human Andes transmission in 2026?closes in 231d 21h· transmission· scienceyes11¢
- Will an Andes/HPS vaccine candidate enter Phase 2 trials in 2026?closes in 231d 21h· vaccine· Phase 2yes41¢
- Will WHO assign a Greek-letter (or successor scheme) variant name to a hantavirus lineage in 2026?closes in 231d 21h· variant· naming· covid-echoyes8¢
- Will any regulator grant emergency authorization to a hantavirus vaccine in 2026?closes in 231d 21h· vaccine· EUA· covid-echoyes5¢
- Will a 'lab-origin' hypothesis appear in any G7 intelligence or government statement on hantavirus by Dec 31?closes in 231d 21h· origin· lab-leak· covid-echoyes13¢
- Will a peer-reviewed paper confirm a hantavirus reinfection case in 2026?closes in 231d 21h· reinfection· immunology· covid-echoyes9¢
- Will WHO, NIH, or NICE formally recognize a 'post-hantavirus' chronic syndrome by Dec 31?closes in 231d 21h· long-hanta· chronic· covid-echoyes6¢
- Will Moderna's hantavirus vaccine mRNA-1080 enter Phase 2 by December 31?closes in 231d 21h· Moderna· vaccine· mRNAyes22¢
- Will any hantavirus vaccine receive Emergency Use Authorization by March 2027?closes in 321d 21h· vaccine· EUA· hantavirusyes8¢
- Will a hantavirus antiviral treatment be approved by December 31, 2026?closes in 231d 21h· antiviral· treatment· hantavirusyes10¢
- Will Regeneron's hantavirus monoclonal antibody enter Phase 2 by October 1?closes in 140d 21h· Regeneron· monoclonal-antibody· hantavirusyes16¢
Media
- Will the NY Times run a hantavirus story above the fold by June 1?closes in 18d 21h· media· NYTyes46¢
- Will any sitting head of state or government test positive for hantavirus in 2026?closes in 231d 21h· politics· covid-echoyes3¢
- Will a celebrity with >10M followers publicly confirm hantavirus infection by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· celebrity· culture· covid-echoyes9¢
- Will a major sports league suspend ≥1 game citing hantavirus by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· sports· NBA-moment· covid-echoyes6¢
- Will WHO or ECDC formally cite a third-party hantavirus dashboard by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· dashboard· covid-echoyes18¢
- Will a major international sporting/cultural event (≥50k attendees) be postponed citing hantavirus by Aug 1?closes in 79d 21h· events· Olympics-echo· covid-echoyes7¢
- Will a top-20 music festival cancel its 2026 edition citing hantavirus by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· festival· culture· covid-echoyes5¢
- Will a top-25 box-office 2026 release be delayed citing hantavirus by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· film· Hollywood· covid-echoyes5¢
- Will any anti-restriction protest >10,000 people occur citing hantavirus measures by Sep 1?closes in 110d 21h· protest· civil-liberties· covid-echoyes8¢
- Will hantavirus be mentioned in a US presidential address by December 31?closes in 231d 21h· president· USA· hantavirusyes23¢
- Will 'hantavirus' become a top-10 Google Trends search term globally?closes in 231d 21h· Google Trends· hantavirus· searchyes35¢
- Will Netflix or major streaming service announce hantavirus documentary by Dec 31?closes in 231d 21h· Netflix· documentary· hantavirusyes44¢
Economy
- Will Carnival, Royal Caribbean or NCL drop ≥30% from May 8 close by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· markets· cruise· covid-echoyes21¢
- Will the S&P 500 trigger a Level-1 circuit breaker (-7%) citing hantavirus by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· markets· circuit-breaker· covid-echoyes4¢
- Will any country impose PPE/medical-supply export restrictions citing hantavirus by July 1?closes in 48d 21h· PPE· export-controls· covid-echoyes6¢
- Will any G7 country announce direct cash transfers ≥$500/person citing hantavirus in 2026?closes in 231d 21h· fiscal· stimulus· covid-echoyes4¢
- Will any MV Hondius passenger sue the cruise line by December 31?closes in 231d 21h· MV Hondius· lawsuit· cruiseyes65¢
- Will cruise industry revenue drop more than 10% due to hantavirus by Q3 2026?closes in 140d 21h· cruise· revenue· hantavirusyes31¢
- Will any major airline cancel routes due to hantavirus by August 1?closes in 79d 21h· airline· cancellations· hantavirusyes13¢
- Will stock markets drop more than 5% in a single day due to hantavirus news?closes in 231d 21h· stock-market· crash· hantavirusyes9¢
- Will rat poison sales increase more than 200% in any country due to hantavirus?closes in 231d 21h· rat-poison· rodenticide· hantavirusyes27¢