PredictHanta
PREDICTHANTA
back to markets
GeographyGermanyhantaviruscommunity-transmissionRKIcloses in 79d 21h

Will Germany report community transmission of hantavirus by August 1?

Germany already sees ~1000+ Puumala cases in peak years (bank vole reservoir). This market asks whether Andes virus specifically achieves community transmission chains on German soil.

YES
15¢
NO
85¢
VOLUME · 24H
LIQUIDITY
TRADERS · 24H
TRADES · 24H
implied probability · last 30d
no data
0%25%50%75%100%
Recent trades
no flow yet
Top holders
YES
NO
Resolution rules

Resolves YES if RKI or ECDC publishes an assessment confirming community transmission (≥2 generations without travel link) of Andes virus in Germany before 2026-08-01.

Settlement protocol

On settlement the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of each source URL plus a SHA-256 hash of the page content captured at resolution time. Disputes have a 7-day arbitration window.

cited: RKI SurvStat + ECDC risk assessments

Resolution sources · 2

ETL workers poll these feeds and merge into the resolution oracle.full registry

Related markets

Background reading