LIVE OUTBREAK
WHO DON#599 · risk: LOW ◆ confirmed 14 ◆ unconfirmed 9 ◆ deaths 3 ◆ countries 6 ◆ MV Hondius cluster · Andes virus ◆ last update Sat, 09 May 2026 14:45:39 GMT ◆ Zürich: 1 confirmed (CH FOPH) ◆ feed: WHO · ECDC · PAHO · hantamapWHO DON#599 · risk: LOW ◆ confirmed 14 ◆ unconfirmed 9 ◆ deaths 3 ◆ countries 6 ◆ MV Hondius cluster · Andes virus ◆ last update Sat, 09 May 2026 14:45:39 GMT ◆ Zürich: 1 confirmed (CH FOPH) ◆ feed: WHO · ECDC · PAHO · hantamap
PREDICTHANTA
outbreak intel · est. 2026
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about

An information market for an outbreak in motion.

PredictHanta is a thematic prediction market focused on the 2026 hantavirus situation. We list contracts on questions whose answers can be verified against primary public sources: WHO Disease Outbreak News, ECDC TESSy, PAHO bulletins, the US CDC MMWR/HAN system and national reference laboratories.

Markets resolve on a YES / NO basis at the listed resolution time. Each market specifies its primary source and arbitration window. Settlement is on-chain; the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of the source page and a SHA-256 hash of its content at resolution.

Why hantavirus, why now

On 1 April 2026 the cruise vessel MV Hondius departed Ushuaia, Argentina. The first fatality was reported 11 April; a second in Johannesburg on 26 April; a third onboard on 2 May. On 6 May, Swiss authorities confirmed Andes virus in a disembarked passenger in Zürich. WHO published Disease Outbreak News #599 the same week and continues to assess global risk as low.

Andes virus is the only orthohantavirus with documented evidence suggestive of person-to-person transmission. Combined with multi-country exposure through cruise itineraries, the situation produces an unusually high information value per market — and a public good in clearer probabilities.

What we are not

  • Not a casino. Markets are sourced from verifiable epidemiological data.
  • Not medical advice. If you are symptomatic, contact a physician.
  • Not a news outlet. We aggregate; we do not break stories.

Build status

This site is a prototype. Trading is simulated until the resolution oracle and on-chain settlement contracts pass third-party audit. Subscribe at the footer to be notified at mainnet launch.