LIVE OUTBREAK
WHO DON#599 · risk: LOW ◆ confirmed 14 ◆ unconfirmed 9 ◆ deaths 3 ◆ countries 6 ◆ MV Hondius cluster · Andes virus ◆ last update Sat, 09 May 2026 14:48:45 GMT ◆ Zürich: 1 confirmed (CH FOPH) ◆ feed: WHO · ECDC · PAHO · hantamapWHO DON#599 · risk: LOW ◆ confirmed 14 ◆ unconfirmed 9 ◆ deaths 3 ◆ countries 6 ◆ MV Hondius cluster · Andes virus ◆ last update Sat, 09 May 2026 14:48:45 GMT ◆ Zürich: 1 confirmed (CH FOPH) ◆ feed: WHO · ECDC · PAHO · hantamap
PREDICTHANTA
outbreak intel · est. 2026
Live · WHO DON #599 · MV Hondius cluster

Trade the next vector.
Price the outbreak in real time.

PredictHanta is an information market on the 2026 hantavirus situation. Resolve questions about WHO declarations, geographic spread, fatality counts and vaccine progress — settled against verifiable WHO, ECDC and PAHO sources.

Confirmed
14
Unconfirmed
9
Deaths
3
Countries
6
Live trades
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Live signal feed
full log
  1. 09 May 2026 14:48·hantamap.online·monitoring

    Tracker tick: case-count delta 0 over last 5 min. Static JSON feed re-validated against WHO DON #599 baseline.

  2. 09 May 2026 12:48·WHO · Geneva·verified

    DON #599 update: global risk remains LOW. 14 confirmed Andes virus cases linked to MV Hondius; no IHR Emergency Committee convened.

  3. 09 May 2026 07:48·Switzerland · Zürich·verified

    FOPH confirms 1 imported Andes virus case (Zürich resident, MV Hondius passenger). PCR + serology positive at reference lab Spiez.

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Policycloses 235d 21h

Will the WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by Dec 31, 2026?

implied probability
7%
warming up
YES
7¢
NO
93¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 52d 21h

Will any G20 country impose hantavirus-specific cruise restrictions by July 1?

implied probability
29%
warming up
YES
29¢
NO
71¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 36d 21h

Will any EU country close schools regionally citing hantavirus by June 15?

implied probability
5%
warming up
YES
5¢
NO
95¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 114d 21h

Will the WHO Director-General publicly use the word 'pandemic' for hantavirus by Sep 1?

implied probability
4%
warming up
YES
4¢
NO
96¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 114d 21h

Will any G20 country impose a nationwide stay-at-home order citing hantavirus by Sep 1?

implied probability
2%
warming up
YES
2¢
NO
98¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 52d 21h

Will any country close its borders to non-citizens citing hantavirus by July 1?

implied probability
7%
warming up
YES
7¢
NO
93¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 83d 21h

Will any G7 country announce an Operation Warp Speed–style hantavirus countermeasures program by Aug 1?

implied probability
11%
warming up
YES
11¢
NO
89¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 52d 21h

Will WHO convene an IHR Emergency Committee on hantavirus by July 1?

implied probability
14%
warming up
YES
14¢
NO
86¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 83d 21h

Will any city >1M residents be placed under stay-at-home order citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

implied probability
4%
warming up
YES
4¢
NO
96¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 114d 21h

Will any G7 country impose a public-space mask mandate citing hantavirus by Sep 1?

implied probability
6%
warming up
YES
6¢
NO
94¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 83d 21h

Will any government order culling of >100k animals citing hantavirus by Aug 1?

implied probability
32%
warming up
YES
32¢
NO
68¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 235d 21h

Will any G7 country suspend funding to or notify withdrawal from WHO over hantavirus response in 2026?

implied probability
5%
warming up
YES
5¢
NO
95¢
awaiting first trade
Policycloses 83d 21h

Will any government open a temporary/field hospital for hantavirus by Aug 1?

implied probability
7%
warming up
YES
7¢
NO
93¢
awaiting first trade
What is hantavirus?

Rodent-borne RNA virus, two clinical syndromes

HFRS in Eurasia (CFR <1–15%); HPS in the Americas (CFR 30–60%). Andes virus is the only orthohantavirus with documented person-to-person spread.

Why a market?

Crowdsourced probability beats news cycles

When the WHO publishes a DON, the market price has often moved hours earlier. We aggregate that signal so policymakers, hedgers and curious humans can read it.

How resolution works

On-chain oracle, off-chain proof

Each market cites a primary public source (WHO DON, ECDC TESSy, MMWR, ClinicalTrials.gov). Disputes go to a 7-day arbitration window before settlement.