Will a second EU country confirm a domestic Andes virus case by June 15, 2026?
After the Zürich confirmation (Switzerland is non-EU), this market asks whether a second EU member state will confirm a lab-verified Andes virus infection of a resident.
Resolves YES on official confirmation by an EU national reference lab posted publicly before 2026-06-15 23:59 UTC. Switzerland, UK, Norway, Iceland do NOT count. Imported cases count if patient resides in the EU country reporting.
On settlement the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of each source URL plus a SHA-256 hash of the page content captured at resolution time. Disputes have a 7-day arbitration window.
cited: ECDC + national health agencies
Resolution sources · 4
Annual epidemiological reports + Communicable Disease Threats Report (CDTR) released every Friday — PDF; link is on the landing page. Use a PDF text extractor (pdfjs) and look for 'Hantavirus' section.
Weekly PDF + RSS. Parse PDF for any 'hantavirus' / 'Andes' string.
Hantavirus is notifiable in Germany. SurvStat exposes weekly case counts as CSV via parametrized URL — wrap as a small ETL.
Weekly HFRS surveillance summary; mainly Puumala in NE France but tracks Andes imports.
ETL workers poll these feeds and merge into the resolution oracle.full registry