Will WHO formally acknowledge sustained human-to-human Andes transmission in 2026?
Andes virus is the only hantavirus with prior reports of person-to-person spread (Argentina 2018–2020). Will WHO upgrade language from 'possible' to 'confirmed sustained' this year?
Resolves YES if WHO publishes language confirming sustained H2H transmission (R0>1 in any documented chain) before 2026-12-31. Academic preprints alone do not count.
On settlement the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of each source URL plus a SHA-256 hash of the page content captured at resolution time. Disputes have a 7-day arbitration window.
cited: WHO situation reports + DON
Resolution sources · 4
RSS at /rss-feeds/disease-outbreak-news.xml. Filter items containing 'hantavirus' or DON#599. Each item links to a permalink with structured 'Situation at a glance' / 'Epidemiology' / 'WHO risk assessment' sections — scrape with cheerio.
esearch + esummary returns JSON with retmode=json. Sort by pubdate. Cross-link DOIs with EuropePMC.
Pre-prints — first place sequence/transmission claims appear.
Open API, includes pre-prints from bioRxiv/medRxiv mirrored.
ETL workers poll these feeds and merge into the resolution oracle.full registry