Will cruise industry revenue drop more than 10% due to hantavirus by Q3 2026?
The cruise industry lost $32B in 2020 revenue due to COVID. Even a fraction of that impact from hantavirus fears could trigger a >10% quarterly decline in bookings and revenue.
Resolves YES if combined Q3 2026 revenue of Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line is ≥10% below Q3 2025, with hantavirus cited as a factor in at least one earnings call.
On settlement the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of each source URL plus a SHA-256 hash of the page content captured at resolution time. Disputes have a 7-day arbitration window.
cited: CLIA quarterly reports + Carnival/RCL/NCL earnings
Resolution sources · 2
Wire-grade source; resolves the NYT/major-media markets.
Cheap sentiment + earliest-mover for translated regional press. Run a dedup hash on titles + canonical URL.
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