PredictHanta
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GeographyAfricahantavirusspreadglobalcloses in 110d 21h

Will hantavirus spread to Africa (excluding South Africa) by September 1?

Hantavirus surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa is limited. Serological evidence exists but confirmed clinical cases are extremely rare. Any confirmed case would represent a major surveillance milestone.

YES
NO
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YES
NO
Resolution rules

Resolves YES if any African country (excluding South Africa) confirms a lab-verified hantavirus case (any species) linked to the 2026 cluster before 2026-09-01. South Africa excluded due to existing surveillance.

Settlement protocol

On settlement the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of each source URL plus a SHA-256 hash of the page content captured at resolution time. Disputes have a 7-day arbitration window.

cited: WHO AFRO + national health ministry confirmations

Resolution sources · 3

ETL workers poll these feeds and merge into the resolution oracle.full registry

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