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GeographySpainhantaviruscasesEuropecloses in 48d 21h
Will Spain report more than 5 hantavirus cases by July 1?
Spain has sporadic Puumala/Dobrava detections but Andes virus would be novel. The Carlos III Health Institute coordinates national surveillance.
YES
19¢
NO
81¢
VOLUME · 24H
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LIQUIDITY
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TRADERS · 24H
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TRADES · 24H
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implied probability · last 30d
no data
Recent trades
no flow yet
Top holders
YES
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NO
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Resolution rules
Resolves YES if Spanish health authorities or ECDC report ≥6 cumulative confirmed hantavirus cases in Spain for 2026 before July 1, 2026.
Settlement protocol
On settlement the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of each source URL plus a SHA-256 hash of the page content captured at resolution time. Disputes have a 7-day arbitration window.
cited: Instituto de Salud Carlos III + ECDC TESSy
Resolution sources · 2
Official·RSS·weekly
ECDC · Communicable Disease Threats Report (CDTR)
Primary
Weekly PDF + RSS. Parse PDF for any 'hantavirus' / 'Andes' string.
Press·RSS·10 min
Reuters · Healthcare & Pharma
Primary
Wire-grade source; resolves the NYT/major-media markets.
ETL workers poll these feeds and merge into the resolution oracle.full registry
Related markets
Geographycloses 32d 21h
Will a second EU country confirm a domestic Andes virus case by June 15, 2026?
implied probability
34%
warming up
YES
34¢
NO
66¢
awaiting first trade
Geographycloses 110d 21h
Will the US CDC report a first imported Andes virus case by Sep 1, 2026?
implied probability
22%
warming up
YES
22¢
NO
78¢
awaiting first trade
Geographycloses 79d 21h
Will Russia confirm an imported Andes case by August 1?
implied probability
13%
warming up
YES
13¢
NO
87¢
awaiting first trade
Background reading
Learn
Andes Virus
Andes orthohantavirus (ANDV) is the only hantavirus confirmed for person-to-person spread. Distribution, mortality (~35%), 2026 cluster activity in Argentina and Chile.
Learn
Hantavirus — Complete Guide
Comprehensive guide to hantavirus: symptoms, transmission via rodents, HPS vs HFRS, mortality rates, treatment, and the 2026 outbreak signal.