Will stock markets drop more than 5% in a single day due to hantavirus news?
The S&P 500 fell 7.6% on March 9, 2020 (first COVID circuit breaker). A 5%+ single-day drop attributed to hantavirus would indicate markets pricing in pandemic-level economic disruption.
Resolves YES if any G7 country's primary stock index (S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX, Nikkei 225, CAC 40, TSX, FTSE MIB) drops ≥5% in a single trading day before 2026-12-31 with hantavirus cited as primary catalyst by ≥2 of {Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, WSJ}.
On settlement the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of each source URL plus a SHA-256 hash of the page content captured at resolution time. Disputes have a 7-day arbitration window.
cited: NYSE/Nasdaq closing prices + Reuters/Bloomberg market analysis
Resolution sources · 2
Wire-grade source; resolves the NYT/major-media markets.
Cheap sentiment + earliest-mover for translated regional press. Run a dedup hash on titles + canonical URL.
ETL workers poll these feeds and merge into the resolution oracle.full registry