Will hantavirus case fatality rate exceed 20% in the 2026 outbreak?
Andes virus HPS historically has a 30-40% CFR, but early detection and modern ICU care may reduce it. If CFR stays above 20% with growing case counts, this becomes a major public health crisis.
Resolves YES if the case fatality rate (deaths/confirmed cases) for the 2026 hantavirus cluster exceeds 20% in any WHO DON published before 2026-12-31 with ≥50 total confirmed cases as denominator.
On settlement the oracle attaches a signed snapshot of each source URL plus a SHA-256 hash of the page content captured at resolution time. Disputes have a 7-day arbitration window.
cited: WHO DON epidemiological summaries (deaths/confirmed cases)
Resolution sources · 3
RSS at /rss-feeds/disease-outbreak-news.xml. Filter items containing 'hantavirus' or DON#599. Each item links to a permalink with structured 'Situation at a glance' / 'Epidemiology' / 'WHO risk assessment' sections — scrape with cheerio.
Useful for Argentina/Chile case counts; PAHO often publishes before WHO HQ. Check /sites/default/files/*.pdf weekly digests.
Weekly PDF + RSS. Parse PDF for any 'hantavirus' / 'Andes' string.
ETL workers poll these feeds and merge into the resolution oracle.full registry